POINTS OF DIFFERENCE.

That's what sets me apart from my peers. Other real estate websites you've viewed might have market statistics. So, what makes my website different? Rather than just copying and pasting numbers, I display up to the past five years of useful information by specific areas in an easy-to-understand format. You can look at any graph and see what's happening. I also post videos in which I discuss the latest information and local real estate trends.

Reading my blog, you'll notice I believe there are multiple real estate markets in Kitsap County. If you only want general information...read newspapers, because that's all you'll get! However, when you need specifics, check out my website for the most recent information and latest trends. When you hear folks talking about our real estate market, think to yourself, "which one?" If you're a member of my Card Carrying Fan Club, you'll understand the suggestion.

The statistical trends I follow most closely are absorption rate, original list price to sale price ratio, average property sold price, market time and cost per square foot. I track absorption rate bi-weekly and the others on a monthly basis. I now use Trendgraphix@ software. The raw data may be interesting but the trends graphs are the most important. These graphs will give you an idea of where we've been and the direction in which we're heading for the short-term (maybe two to three months out).

I've included the raw data following each chart so you can view the actual numbers for yourself. These areas include:

     * Kitsap County Overall (Market areas 141-150, 161-168, 170)
     * South Kitsap (Market areas 141-144)
     * Seabeck/Holly (Market area 145)
     * Chico (Market area 146)
     * Silverdale (Market area 147)
     * Bremerton (Market areas 148-150)
     * Kingston (Market area 162)
     * Poulsbo (Market areas 165-166)
     * Bainbridge Island (Market area 170)

Knowledge is power and as I explain to my clients, knowledge gives us leverage to negotiate terms to our advantage. My website charts are updated monthly and I post additional market statistics with detailed comments on my blog site weekly. If you have questions or comments about these statistics, I'll try my best to answer your questions. If you would like to know the market statistics for your particular neighborhood, just give me a call.

Absorption Rate: What's Happening in our Market TODAY

ABSORPTION RATE is defined as the time needed for the market to consume the existing inventory of homes for sale. I compute absorption rate weekly by dividing the total number of active listings for an area (or neighborhood, or style of home) by the number of closed sales for that particular week.

I find that absorption rate is much more sensitive to changing market conditions than any of my other indicators. And using this calculation I can generally predict within three to four weeks after a change has begun.

I pay particular attention to the following areas when calculating absorption rate and have "broken down" Bremerton and Poulsbo into separate areas due to their geographical size:

     * Kitsap County Overall (Market areas 141-150,161-168, 170)
     * Chico (Market area 146)
     * Silverdale (Market area 147)
     * East Bremerton (Market area 149)
     * North Bremerton (Market area 150)
     * Poulsbo (Market area 165)
     * East Poulsbo (Market area 166)

Average Sold Price: Shows Historical Sales Prices and Trends

This is one of the charts I'm now posting on my blog. I use the "trailing" data in six months blocks to prepare this chart. For example, February 2009 includes information from Septembar 1, 2008 through February 28, 2009. I use six months to decrease the volatility of the information when preparing my charts. It's more statistically valid to have 100 closed sales in a six month period than 16 per month and charting that data. The charts would just be a jumble of numbers making it extremely difficult to forecast trends.

These charts indicate whether the price of homes that have recently sold is increasing or decreasing. It's a number sellers and buyers should know.

Looking at the third column to the right in the Average Sold chart, it's also interesting to see the increasing or decreasing trends in the number of sales for each six month period. This trend began to change as early as September 2006 in some areas. Since I'm using six months of data per period, there will be somewhat of a delay before any market correction is realized using this chart. Hence, absorption rate!

Original List Price to Sale Price Ratio

I use this information to determine how much houses are selling at a discount to the list price. Many of my peers use list price to sale price information in their presentations but the ratio they quote is the list price at the time buyer and seller agreed on the contract. What their numbers don't include is the fact that price increases or price decreases may have occurred. Also remember that a property may have been listed multiple times in the past without any purchase offers and successive price reductions.

My charts show the ratio of the original list price to the final sale price which lets you know if houses are selling for a discount or premium of that original list price. Remember, knowledge is power which converts to leverage...or lack of...depending on the market.

I've been able to predict whether a house is competitively priced in a market by using this ratio as well as reviewing the absorption rate.

Market Time

Market time or days-on-market was the number I used to watch until Denise Lones turned me on to absorption rate.

This number can give a false sense of security. If the listing was canceled or expired, then a new listing number was issued and the counter started all over again. The "counting" process was changed during the summer of 2006 when we began using "CDOM" or cumulative days on market.

However, I still track market time in context with my other charts.

Cost per Square Foot

To be honest, the only reason I chart this information is that it comes with my reports and I just do it. It's like market time, you have the information so use it if it helps!

Again, if you have any questions, I'll be happy to answer them.

Client Market Ratios

Finally, I complement the absorption rate data I provide clients with weekly updated market ratios to help them understand what is happening in their particular market...Right Now! This is very important because we're competing in different local markets.

This information gives us a competitive edge by keeping ahead of the market, not chasing it and trying to catch up. It gives my buyers the leverage we need to make competitive offers that will be accepted by sellers without the risk of competing offers being accepted over ours.

Windermere Real Estate/West Sound, Inc. :: 9939 Mickelberry Rd NW, Silverdale, WA 98383 :: Office: 360-692-6102 :: Fax: 360-698-4614